This Week's Top Economic Data and Events
Consumer Confidence
Scheduled: 01/31 • Estimate: 108.9 • Previous: 108.3
With Confidence expected only to notch upward slightly, even a flat reading may not put much downward pressure on mortgage rates.
ISM Manufacturing Index
Scheduled: 02/01 • Estimate: 48.0 • Previous: 48.4
The slowing in manufacturing is starting to worry more experts, and a dip below 47.8 could create more downward pressure on mortgage rates.
FOMC Policy Announcement
Scheduled: 02/01
If the Fed highlights that inflation is slowing, the economy is cooling, and only raises its rate a quarter point, rates could slide down slightly.
Fed Chair Press Conference
Scheduled: 02/01
If Powell highlights that inflation is still twice the Fed’s target and not slowing at the rate the Fed wants, we could see rates moving upward.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Scheduled: 02/03 • Estimate: 185K • Previous: 223K
If the hot labor market manages to create over 210K jobs again, then mortgage rates will experience some growing upward pressure.
Monthly Mortgage Commentary
For February 2023
MORTGAGE Last week's limited amount of data gave traders time to ponder the direction that the Fed may move this year. Only a few weeks ago, it appeared that inflation and employment might be on the right track to enable the Fed to shift into a less aggressive stance. Then January's employment report blew by expectations, and rates began moving upward. Despite the headlines of layoffs in the tech sector, the labor market remains red hot. Weekly unemployment claims remain stubbornly stuck near record lows, and almost two jobs are open for every available worker. While we are seeing signs that the economy is cooling, inflation may not drop as quickly as many had hoped that it would.
With the market pensive regarding the potential for the Fed to continue to raise rates and keep them higher than hoped, this week's data could put rates back on an upward trajectory. Both Retail Sales and Industrial Production are expected to bounce back upward, along with the core readings of the CPI and PPI. If they all come in as predicted, rates will have difficulty not moving upward.
Monthly Real Estate Commentary
For February 2023
REAL ESTATE Last week's limited amount of data gave traders time to ponder the direction that the Fed may move this year. Only a few weeks ago, it appeared that inflation and employment might be on the right track to enable the Fed to shift into a less aggressive stance. Then January's employment report blew by expectations, and rates began moving upward. Despite the headlines of layoffs in the tech sector, the labor market remains red hot. Weekly unemployment claims remain stubbornly stuck near record lows, and almost two jobs are open for every available worker. While we are seeing signs that the economy is cooling, inflation may not drop as quickly as many had hoped that it would.
With the market pensive regarding the potential for the Fed to continue to raise rates and keep them higher than hoped, this week's data could put rates back on an upward trajectory. Both Retail Sales and Industrial Production are expected to bounce back upward, along with the core readings of the CPI and PPI. If they all come in as predicted, rates will have difficulty not moving upward.
Monthly Economic Commentary
For February 2023
ECONOMIC Last week's limited amount of data gave traders time to ponder the direction that the Fed may move this year. Only a few weeks ago, it appeared that inflation and employment might be on the right track to enable the Fed to shift into a less aggressive stance. Then January's employment report blew by expectations, and rates began moving upward. Despite the headlines of layoffs in the tech sector, the labor market remains red hot. Weekly unemployment claims remain stubbornly stuck near record lows, and almost two jobs are open for every available worker. While we are seeing signs that the economy is cooling, inflation may not drop as quickly as many had hoped that it would.
With the market pensive regarding the potential for the Fed to continue to raise rates and keep them higher than hoped, this week's data could put rates back on an upward trajectory. Both Retail Sales and Industrial Production are expected to bounce back upward, along with the core readings of the CPI and PPI. If they all come in as predicted, rates will have difficulty not moving upward.
This Week's Top Economic Data and Events
Consumer Confidence
Scheduled: 01/31 • Estimate: 108.9 • Previous: 108.3
With Confidence expected only to notch upward slightly, even a flat reading may not put much downward pressure on mortgage rates.
ISM Manufacturing Index
Scheduled: 02/01 • Estimate: 48.0 • Previous: 48.4
The slowing in manufacturing is starting to worry more experts, and a dip below 47.8 could create more downward pressure on mortgage rates.
FOMC Policy Announcement
Scheduled: 02/01
If the Fed highlights that inflation is slowing, the economy is cooling, and only raises its rate a quarter point, rates could slide down slightly.
Fed Chair Press Conference
Scheduled: 02/01
If Powell highlights that inflation is still twice the Fed’s target and not slowing at the rate the Fed wants, we could see rates moving upward.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Scheduled: 02/03 • Estimate: 185K • Previous: 223K
If the hot labor market manages to create over 210K jobs again, then mortgage rates will experience some growing upward pressure.
